This July 14th, 2023 article on Bloomberg leads you to believe there will be no recession in 2023, and that we're in for a "soft landing" and a big bull market in stocks.
The "Everything Rally" Is Back. So is the Casino Crowd.
OK, I don't subscribe to Bloomberg, so I can only read the top bit of the article. But this was right at the top of Bloomberg's website today (July 15th, 2023). This is one of the most respected business news networks out there. They seem to think stocks will keep up the impressive 2023 rally (from 2022 lows). Are they right?
I don't think so. All the major stock indices are about where they were two years ago, in 2021, except in dollars worth 15% to 20% less, because of inflation. There are all kinds of economic indicators predicting a serious recession soon. These include multiple bond market inversions (short term bonds have higher yields, pay higher interest, than long term bonds), there have been tens of thousands of tech industry layoffs, retail and office real estate is tanking, home prices are down 10%-14% in some of the hottest cities of recent years, and consumer credit card usage has surged higher, suggesting many people are buying everyday goods on credit, rather than cash.
Time will tell which view is right. But this headline caught my eye, and I wanted to share it here. I could be wrong, the very smart financial researchers and macro forecasters I watch could all be wrong. We'll see. As always, time will tell.
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