Wealthion's Adam Taggart interviews macro-economic analyst Stephanie Pomboy

A few posts ago I said Danielle DiMartino Booth was one of my two favorite macro economic analysts.  The other one, and the first of the two I discovered, about six months ago, is Stephanie Pomboy.  She lays out her view of the macro picture in this two part interview.  You can find out more about Stephanie at her website, Macro Mavens.

Disclaimer

As I've written many times, across several blogs, There were two ultra-long term theories that led me to believe, back in about 2016-17, that we were in for a major, long, economic downturn, beginning around 2020.  Those two theories/concepts were The Third Wave by Alvin Toffler, and the Law of Social Cycle, by P.R. Sarkar, from India.  There were also some mid term cycles that, along with those two above, that all seemed to be converging towards major inflection points in the early 2020's.  When a whole bunch of completely different trends and cycles all point to inflection points about the same time, there's a really good chance something really big will happen.  That was my Big Picture take on things back in 2018-2019, looking towards 2020 and beyond.  

So, back in 2019, I expected some really crazy economic times ahead, and those assorted ideas about long term cycles gave me a 70,000 foot view of the coming recession (depression?), and gave me an idea what to look for.  But how the whole recession would play out depended on The Fed and many other factors.  I definitely did not expect the pandemic to spark the initial crash, and totally did not expect The Fed to flood the U.S. with six trillion newly created dollars.  Now we have a 3 1/2 year track record of The Fed doing really unexpected things.  

In any case, since late 2019, I've looked for really smart people who understood parts of the economic picture, to get their take on what's actually happening in the economic world, and how things are most likely to play out over the next year or two.  Stephanie Pomboy kicks butt in figuring out the macro picture, coming from the corporate angle.  If you want a good idea of what's happening economically in the world right now, and how things are likely to play out in future months, watch this video.  

Here's part two of the interview, which is about another half hour.

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Real Estate: Nick Gerli- the best voice I've heard on real estate

In this video, Adam Taggart of the Wealthion YouTube channel interviews Nick Gerli of Reventure Consulting.  The Wealthion YouTube channel puts out interviews every day, with a wide variety of people on business, money, economics, and investing.  Nick Gerli has his own YouTube channel, Reventure Consulting, where he puts out longer videos up once or twice a week, and YouTube shorts several times a week.  He has also developed the Reventure App real estate app/website where you can look up stats and trends about residential real estate for every part of the U.S.  The Reventure App is still free to use, as I write this. 

I first found Nick Gerli's YouTube channel in the summer of 2022, when I went looking for good info about real estate, as interest rates were starting to rise.  While I was expecting an eventual crash in real estate, Nick was making some claims that seemed pretty far out, even to me.  But as time went on, and I watched more of his content, I realized the Nick really knows his shit.  He's looking at the data, the actual data of what is happening in real estate nationwide.  

He also amazes me for his historic knowledge or real estate.  I'm an old Gen X guy, now 57 years old, I remember the 6-7 year real estate recession here in Southern California in the 1990's, that followed the 80's boom.  Nick's a young guy, but he's done an amazing amount of research at some point, and really looks at today's crazy market from a solid, historical perspective.  

In addition, this past winter, Nick stopped putting out content for a few months.  He did that partly because he was building his app.  But he also traveled much of the U.S. to get a solid, "boots on the ground" look at what is happening in regional and local areas, firsthand.  Nick is on top of the national real estate picture like no one else these days.  

On the other side of this interview, Adam Taggart talks daily to some of the best minds in business, investing, and economics, and has a great knowledge of the crazy dynamics of  the financial world in 2023.  Because of this body of knowledge, Adam does great interviews with these people, in this case, with Nick.  

This interview took place in mid-July 2023.  If you're trying to get a grasp on where the U.S. real estate market is in the summer of 2023, this interview is the best place to start.  

I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack these days, check it out:

Steve Emig The White Bear's Substack