Check out my writing on Substack...

Here's a clip of Joe Rogan interviewing Chris Best, one of the two founders of Substack.  Substack is a platform for writers to write the stuff they're really passionate about, and where they can build a mailing list of readers, and make money by charging a subscription fee, if they want to.  Created in 2017, Substack is a place for writers to write publish their best work, and potentially make a good living for doing it, if they can draw a big enough paid audience.  After publishing at least 50 blog ideas, more than 2,500 blog posts, and drawing close to half a million page views in 14 years, I stumbled across Substack.  I really like the platform, and that's where I'm doing most of my writing now.  You can Check out my Substack at the link below.  

Steve Emig: The White Bear's Substack

Disclaimer

I started this blog to dive into the future trends, economic picture, and dealing with this coming recession, which I think are big issues these days (late September 2023, as I write this).  But then I discovered Substack, and decided that's a better platform for a lot of the writing I want to do.  For those of you who have discovered this post, and are looking for good info on the economic trends, the recession, and those things, here are my favorite people to watch and listen to on those subjects.  I don't agree with everything each one says, but overall they have a lot of good info on a consistent basis.  Watch those that seem interesting, and use your own best judgement when analyzing info, and always do your own due diligence before making any decisions.  

Real estate- 

Nick Gerli- Reventure Consulting YouTube channel

Also check out his Reventure app for up-to-date, local real estate info from all over the U.S..  It's still totally free as I write this, but there will be a paywall soon for some info.

Macro economic analysts- 

Stephanie Pomboy

Danielle DiMartino Booth

Lyn Alden

YouTube channels for financial, economic, and investing info-

The Money GPS

Heresy Financial

Wealthion

Daniella Cambone/Stansberry Research

Robert Kiyosaki/Rich Dad Radio Show

Blockworks Macro/Forward Guidance

Steven Van Metre

Eurodollar University

There are no paid links in this post.

Wealthion's Adam Taggart interviews macro-economic analyst Stephanie Pomboy

A few posts ago I said Danielle DiMartino Booth was one of my two favorite macro economic analysts.  The other one, and the first of the two I discovered, about six months ago, is Stephanie Pomboy.  She lays out her view of the macro picture in this two part interview.  You can find out more about Stephanie at her website, Macro Mavens.

Disclaimer

As I've written many times, across several blogs, There were two ultra-long term theories that led me to believe, back in about 2016-17, that we were in for a major, long, economic downturn, beginning around 2020.  Those two theories/concepts were The Third Wave by Alvin Toffler, and the Law of Social Cycle, by P.R. Sarkar, from India.  There were also some mid term cycles that, along with those two above, that all seemed to be converging towards major inflection points in the early 2020's.  When a whole bunch of completely different trends and cycles all point to inflection points about the same time, there's a really good chance something really big will happen.  That was my Big Picture take on things back in 2018-2019, looking towards 2020 and beyond.  

So, back in 2019, I expected some really crazy economic times ahead, and those assorted ideas about long term cycles gave me a 70,000 foot view of the coming recession (depression?), and gave me an idea what to look for.  But how the whole recession would play out depended on The Fed and many other factors.  I definitely did not expect the pandemic to spark the initial crash, and totally did not expect The Fed to flood the U.S. with six trillion newly created dollars.  Now we have a 3 1/2 year track record of The Fed doing really unexpected things.  

In any case, since late 2019, I've looked for really smart people who understood parts of the economic picture, to get their take on what's actually happening in the economic world, and how things are most likely to play out over the next year or two.  Stephanie Pomboy kicks butt in figuring out the macro picture, coming from the corporate angle.  If you want a good idea of what's happening economically in the world right now, and how things are likely to play out in future months, watch this video.  

Here's part two of the interview, which is about another half hour.

I'm doing a lot of my new writing on Substack these days.  Check it out:

Steve Emig The White Bear's Substack

The coming stock market crash... when the recession will finally feel real

Here's Joe Brown from Heresy Financial, with a video titled, "Global Margin Call: an urgent warning to all investors."  Of the handful of videos from serious financial market watcher, analysts, and investors that have recently made "stock crash coming" videos, this video has the best overview of how thing may play out soon.  Joe makes the case for serious downsides in treasuries (bonds), stocks, and real estate.

Disclaimer

While the mainstream business news and federal officials keep pushing the "no landing" or "soft landing," "there will be no recession" narrative, the people paying attention to actual forward-looking data, see a much different picture.  Even a couple of months ago, it looked like the major stock crash, and the visible drop in today's highly inflated asset prices, particularly stocks, would probably hit the crisis point in September or October.  There were all kinds of negative issues in the economic world, kind of glacially grinding towards a major recession.  It looked like September would be about the right time for it all to come together and hit the fan.  That appeared to be about when stocks would lose their froth, and begin the inevitable big slide down.  Now we are about a week away from September 2023, and the best analysts I watch on the short term trends are saying pretty much the same thing.  The stock market may even have topped out, time will tell on that one.  But there's a major downturn coming soon, and it looks like we are right on the precipice of it now. 

"Get out of stocks now!"- Self proclaimed "bond king," and financial market analyst, investor, and YouTube channel hose, Steven Van Metre just said it straight out, pulling no punches about the near term future of stocks.  

"Global Crash Countdown" - Brent Johnson, known for the "Dollar Milkshake" theory, and co-host Jon Kutsmeda, from the Milkshakes Market Madness podcast/channel, are also seeing a major economic crash coming soon as well.

"When will it end?" - Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University, in conversation with Steven Van Metre, looks at the data of the current asset bubbles, and they wonder how much long the bubbles can blow up before it all pops.

"Michael Burry $1.6 billion short"- David at the The Money GPS YouTube Channel, digs into the news that Michael Burry, who gained fame in the movie, The Big Short, after making a fortune shorting the U.S. housing market in 2008.  

"End of America: Why inflation, the dollar, and The Fed will doom us all" - Well damn, that's a bummer of a title, from Daniella Cambone of Stansberry Research.  This video, a compilation of several of her recent interviews, was just uploaded as I was working on this blog post.  

These are just a few people who actually look at the actual economic data, who have made very dismal YouTube videos, in the last 8 days.  Do you see a theme here?  Some of the best minds looking at that actual economic data, day after day, see a major correction, if not a full blown asset price crash, coming really soon.  Don't take my word for it, watch these videos, and see in the actual data, from several different data sets, showing major economic slowdowns around the world.  It sure looks like we are getting really close to the stock market, and other over-priced asset bubbles, falling soon.  My guess is in the month of September, 2023.  Bad things have a way of happening in the economy in September.  That's just my personal, educated guess.  Think 2008.  

If you managed to find this post, and now are wondering about your stock portfolio's future, check out this video below.  Again, from Joe Brown, the guy in the top video, this video explains the basic idea for seven different strategies you can learn more about, and use, if you come to the conclusion that stocks really are in for a good-sized drop.  Remember, consult any professionals needed before you make investment decisions, and do the due diligence needed to make the best decisions for your personal situation.  

Heresy Financial: "7 Ways to Make Huge Profits from a Stock Market Crash"

This post is for education and entertainment purposes only, and is not financial advice.  See the linked disclaimer above for more information. 

Here are a couple of theme songs for this crash:

"Old Money" - Lana Del Rey

"The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" - Gordon Lightfoot

There are no paid links in this post.

I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack these days, check it out.

Steve Emig The White Bears's Substack

China is beginning to collapse financially

Don't take my word for it.  Here's Joe Brown from Heresy Financial channel giving his take on the current trouble with China's economy.  He gives a good overview in this video.  Much like the pandemic, this is another thing coming out of China whose contagion will spread around the world.  

I'm not going to editorialize on this one, just give you links to several really smart people speaking on this subject in the last few days.  

" black swan event...!" Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University on the dismal economic numbers coming (and not coming) out of China

"Nightmare unfolds" Steven Van Metre looking into the Chinese economy, and the Evergrande bankruptcy

"Verge of collapse"  David from Money GPS channel, with his take on the economic problems in China

These are four really smart people on money and finances, all looking at the events of the last few days in China.  The huge Chinese real estate developer, Evergrande, filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in Manhattan the other day, to try and get help dealing with its U.S. and world creditors.  The Chinese yuan is sinking in value, as well.  Their economy is slowing down dramatically.  There will be effects of China's troubles hitting the U.S. economy and businesses soon.  

I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack these days, check it out:

Steve Emig The White Bear's Substack

The world's biggest property developer just went bankrupt: China's Evergrande goes Chapter 15

David from the Money GPS YouTube channel gives us a first look into the collapse and bankruptcy of China's Evergrande, said to be the world's largest property development company.  China's real eatate market is a $62 trillion industry, it's the single largest asset class on Earth, bigger than the bond markets, stock markets, and every other asset class.  And it's in big trouble right now.  

I've been watching David's Money GPS channel since late 2019, shortly after the Repo Market crisis happened.  He's had his eye on the Chinese real estate market for quite a while, and in the video above, he gives his early take on what's happening with the bankruptcy of Evergrande, and where things are likely to go from here.  He takes his information from original sources, not 2nd or 3rd hand opinions.  This helps us get a clearer picture of what's happening around the world in economics, business trade, and related issues.   

I'm doing a lot of writing on Substack these days, check it out:

Steve Emig The White Bear's Substack

Deflation? Jeff Snyder makes the case for future deflation

Eurodollar University channel's Jeff Snider has an amazing knowledge of the eurodollar system (the real reserve currency system), and the nuances of the banking and monetary system.  Jeff, and his friend and frequent guest on his podcasts, Steve Van Metre, have taught me a lot about the financial systems nuts and bolts in recent months.  In this interview, Jeff makes the case for coming deflation, instead of another wave of inflation.  Yes, DE-flation, as in prices actually going down for a period of time.  

I feel pretty stupid listening to Jeff Snider's videos.  But after 2-3 months of listening to his daily videos regularly, his insights make more and more sense.  In this video he makes the case that the "inflation" we have dealt with is actually the result of a "supply shock," and that now we are into disinflation (prices not rising as fast), and may well be headed for actual "deflation," where prices actually drop overall.  It won't be forever, but it looks like inflation is, and quite possibly will continue to decrease in the coming months.  Just check out the video.

I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack these days, check it out:

Steve Emig The White Bear's Substack

56% of student loan borrowers will have to choose between loans and necessities

 According to this new CNBC article, citing a Credit Karma survey, 56% of people polled who owe student loans say they will have to choose between paying student loans and buying food and paying their rent.  The article goes on to say that 45% of borrowers expect to get behind on their payments, and to become delinquent, at some point.  The article says that even many people with incomes of over $100,000 a year will have trouble making student loan payments.  

Pure and simple, the federal government is going to eat most of the $q.4 trillion or more of the government owned student loan debt.  Most people can't afford to pay it.  It's just that simple.  But no one wants to admit that.  Think about it, you're not considered responsible enough to buy an alcoholic drink at age 18, but you can sign a contract for $40,000 to $100,000 in debt when you have no means to pay it at the time.  Think about that one.  

The smart people that can't afford it simply won't pay it, and will take the hit to their credit.  What are they going to do?  Repossess their brains?  There are over 40 million Americans with student loans, over $1.8 trillion in total student loan debt now, and the average payment is estimated to be about $400.  Around 37% of student loans weren't being paid on time in the spring of 2019, a year before the pandemic (the Nerd Wallet article with that info has since been updated to more current stats, but I read it myself in 2020).  

Honestly, I'm 57 years old and currently homeless, though I'm a working artist and blogger.  I just don't earn enough to rent a place to live.  I'm GLAD that I didn't go to college.  While my economic life got off track for several reasons in recent years, not going to college is one of the best decisions I ever made.  I didn't have the money to go, not even close, when I graduated from high school.  My parents didn't save money, because of the dynamics going on in our house.  I didn't have a strong direction in life at age 18, so I probably would have been on the 5 or 6 year plan, bouncing between majors, if I had gone to college.  I knew I wanted to have my own business at some point, and I didn't need a degree to hire myself.  There was nothing I was really interested in that required a college degree.  So for me, avoiding college was the right decision.  That's just me.  

But today, in 2023, it's a much different world than it was when I was 18.  A college education does not guarantee people a high paying job when they graduate anymore.  It's a coin toss, at this point, depending on a whole range of factors.  Some people with degrees will make millions more over their lifetimes, and many other graduates will struggle with their student loan debt for decades.  This issue is just beginning to hit a crisis point, and I believe it will be one more reason college enrollment will continue to drop in the next several years.  Young people who are not from wealthy families will see their parents, aunts and uncles, and other adults struggling with student loan debt, and huge numbers will take alternative paths in life.  I believe the coming recession, and its lingering aftermath, will be another reason that will force a complete restructuring of not only student debt, but the entire college and university system.  

I've been predicting a "College Apocalypse" since a chance conversation led me to do about 20 minutes of research, back in 2017, and I learned what SLABS (Student Loan Asset Backed Securities) were.  After learning about SLABS, I knew then the whole higher education system would reach a crisis point within 5 to 10 years.  The can got kicked down the road for three years, due to the pandemic, but it's now becoming apparent there's a HUGE crisis in higher education coming.  Student loan payments are supposed to start again in October.  Most people with those loans can't afford to make the payments, pure and simple.  Like commercial real estate, this is another major crisis we are heading for, and it won't end well.  

I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack these days, check it out:

Steve Emig The White Bear's Substack