The coming stock market crash... when the recession will finally feel real

Here's Joe Brown from Heresy Financial, with a video titled, "Global Margin Call: an urgent warning to all investors."  Of the handful of videos from serious financial market watcher, analysts, and investors that have recently made "stock crash coming" videos, this video has the best overview of how thing may play out soon.  Joe makes the case for serious downsides in treasuries (bonds), stocks, and real estate.

Disclaimer

While the mainstream business news and federal officials keep pushing the "no landing" or "soft landing," "there will be no recession" narrative, the people paying attention to actual forward-looking data, see a much different picture.  Even a couple of months ago, it looked like the major stock crash, and the visible drop in today's highly inflated asset prices, particularly stocks, would probably hit the crisis point in September or October.  There were all kinds of negative issues in the economic world, kind of glacially grinding towards a major recession.  It looked like September would be about the right time for it all to come together and hit the fan.  That appeared to be about when stocks would lose their froth, and begin the inevitable big slide down.  Now we are about a week away from September 2023, and the best analysts I watch on the short term trends are saying pretty much the same thing.  The stock market may even have topped out, time will tell on that one.  But there's a major downturn coming soon, and it looks like we are right on the precipice of it now. 

"Get out of stocks now!"- Self proclaimed "bond king," and financial market analyst, investor, and YouTube channel hose, Steven Van Metre just said it straight out, pulling no punches about the near term future of stocks.  

"Global Crash Countdown" - Brent Johnson, known for the "Dollar Milkshake" theory, and co-host Jon Kutsmeda, from the Milkshakes Market Madness podcast/channel, are also seeing a major economic crash coming soon as well.

"When will it end?" - Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University, in conversation with Steven Van Metre, looks at the data of the current asset bubbles, and they wonder how much long the bubbles can blow up before it all pops.

"Michael Burry $1.6 billion short"- David at the The Money GPS YouTube Channel, digs into the news that Michael Burry, who gained fame in the movie, The Big Short, after making a fortune shorting the U.S. housing market in 2008.  

"End of America: Why inflation, the dollar, and The Fed will doom us all" - Well damn, that's a bummer of a title, from Daniella Cambone of Stansberry Research.  This video, a compilation of several of her recent interviews, was just uploaded as I was working on this blog post.  

These are just a few people who actually look at the actual economic data, who have made very dismal YouTube videos, in the last 8 days.  Do you see a theme here?  Some of the best minds looking at that actual economic data, day after day, see a major correction, if not a full blown asset price crash, coming really soon.  Don't take my word for it, watch these videos, and see in the actual data, from several different data sets, showing major economic slowdowns around the world.  It sure looks like we are getting really close to the stock market, and other over-priced asset bubbles, falling soon.  My guess is in the month of September, 2023.  Bad things have a way of happening in the economy in September.  That's just my personal, educated guess.  Think 2008.  

If you managed to find this post, and now are wondering about your stock portfolio's future, check out this video below.  Again, from Joe Brown, the guy in the top video, this video explains the basic idea for seven different strategies you can learn more about, and use, if you come to the conclusion that stocks really are in for a good-sized drop.  Remember, consult any professionals needed before you make investment decisions, and do the due diligence needed to make the best decisions for your personal situation.  

Heresy Financial: "7 Ways to Make Huge Profits from a Stock Market Crash"

This post is for education and entertainment purposes only, and is not financial advice.  See the linked disclaimer above for more information. 

Here are a couple of theme songs for this crash:

"Old Money" - Lana Del Rey

"The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald" - Gordon Lightfoot

There are no paid links in this post.

I'm doing a lot of my writing on Substack these days, check it out.

Steve Emig The White Bears's Substack

I think we're due for a Black Swan event to really kick this recession off

Black swans surfing in Australia.  A "black swan" event is a highly unlikely, yet high impact event.  An example would be a small meteorite hitting your car.  There is a tiny, tiny chance of your car ever being hit by a small meteorite.  But if one did hit your car out in the driveway, it would have a huge effect, like destroying your car.  That's an example of a black swan event, a term made popular by the 2007 book Black Swan by Nichols Taleb.

 Disclaimer

The 2023 recession that hasn't happened yet is now often called the most anticipated recession in history.  This is due in large part to the rise of YouTube and social media since the Great Recession of 2007-2009.  there are just a lot more people talking about the recession that many people believe we are heading into.  Personally, I've been writing about this recession since early 2019, here's one of the earlier posts.  

The question at this point is how bad of a recession, and when does it really get going?  Personally, I think we are hitting the point where the massive tightening of credit by banks (after the March 2023 bank failures), and the lag effect of the steepest interest rate hikes in modern history here in the U.S. are bringing the "real world" or "Main Street" economy to a screeching halt as we speak.  Residential real estate sales have dropped off a cliff, home values are down 10% or more in several recent boom cities (San Francisco, Austin, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Boise), and Disney World in Florida was so slow on 4th of July weekend this year that it made national news.  Most consumers near the end of any excess savings they had, and credit card use is soaring. 

My personal view is that the next stock crash will happen between now and late September 2023, looking that the slowing momentum of so many aspects of the economy.  I think crypto and gold will initially drop as well. I believe there will be a domino effect at that point, with whole bunch more bank collapses coming as well.  The Fed's own report, from late May 2023, says 722 U.S. banks are in danger of bankruptcy.  Yet The Fed seems to be ignoring that, and expectations are they will raise interest rates yet another 1/4 point (.25%) in late July.  So that's my personal take on things on the immediate economic outlook.

OK, I'm a homeless guy who has no money invested, so it's easy to blow off my opinion.  I have made several pretty solid calls in the past.  If you don't like my take on things, check out some of the links at the bottom of this post.  I, personally, think it's time to get out of stocks, and wait out the chaos, by getting into whatever people think is safer for the next 6-12 months.  That may be short term U.S. treasuries, gold or silver bullion, or major cryptos (Bitcoin & Ethereum, perhaps the next few top coins).  That's a personal choice for all of you reading this.  

Most older investors like gold or treasuries, while the rising Millennial and Gen Z crowd are far more into crypto than gold, in general.  I think we are about to head into 9-12 really tough months economically, but with low inflation or even short term deflation ( as shown by CPI), which will lead to more massive bailouts for banking and financial markets, but not everyday for everyday Americans.  

That will lead to The Fed lowering interest rates, possible in late 2023 and throughout much of 2024.  So we have an economic crash soon, slowing down most all businesses, as inflation fades out of the story.   But by summer of 2024, we should have lower interest rates, and tons of money being created and surged into the banking system, corporate bonds, and the stock market.  So we will most likely see a really slow Main Street economy and a new rally beginning in stocks, and in crypto, by mid 2024.  All that money creation will begin to pump up inflation again, with it rising back up in late 2024 and early 2025.  That's the most likely scenario I see going forward.  Residential real estate will keep tanking for another couple of years in most places, and the Main Street recession will linger for a couple years or more, in most places, because the whole world is slowing down right now.  

But I'm just a broke futurist geek, not a well known investor or macro-economic forecaster.  In any case, we appear to be sliding into the major recession I've been blogging about for about 4 years now.  In my opinion, this recession will be life changing for many people, and world changing on several levels.  Time will tell on all of that. 

But why take my word for it, here are some much more respectable people voicing their opinions.

Macro economic analyst Danielle DeMartino Booth on Blockworks Macro's Forward Guidance

Wealthion interview with residential real estate consultant/YouTuber Nick Gerli

Blockworks Macro interviews Lyn Alden on inflation

Joe Brown of Heresy Financial channel on inflation

David at Money GPS